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The methodology required to size these new markets requires two approaches. Each approach will yield a different approximation of potential market size, and often figures will work together to provide a solid foundation for market’s potential. Growthink calls first approach “peeling back onion.” In this approach, we start with generic market (e.g., coffee market) that that company is trying to penetrate, and remove pieces of that market that it will not target. For instance, if company created an ultra high-speed coffee maker that retailed for $600, it would initially reduce market size by factors such as retail channels (e.g., mass marketers would not carry product), demographic factors (lower income customers would not purchase product), etc. By peeling back generic market, you eventually will be left with only relevant portion of it.
The second methodology requires assessing market from several angles to approximate potential market share, answering questions including:
•Competitors: who is competing for customer that you will be serving; what is in their product pipeline; once you release a product/service, how long will it take them to enter market, who else may enter market, etc.
•Customers: what are demographics and psychographics of customers you will be targeting; what products are they currently using to fulfill a similar need (substitute products); how are they currently purchasing these products; what is their degree of loyalty to current providers, etc.
•Market factors: what other factors exist that will influence market size – government regulations; market consolidation in related markets, price changes for raw materials, etc.
•Case Studies: what other markets have experience similar transformations and what were customer adoption rates in those markets, etc.
While these methodologies are often more painstaking than traditional market research techniques, they can be difference in determining whether your company has next iPod or next Edsel.
As President of Growthink, Dave Lavinsky has helped the company become one of the premier business plan development firms. Since its inception, Growthink has developed over 200 business plans. Growthink clients have collectively raised over $750 million in financing, launched numerous new product and service lines and gained competitive advantage and market share. For more information please visit http://www.growthink.com