When it comes to 401k's there is an overabundance of sad stories. Here is one that at least has a happy ending—and it's getting happier all
time.Last year (in 2002) a friend of mine—let’s call him Jack—phoned and asked if I could help him with his 401k. Jack works for a large company as Senior VP of lending and is financially pretty astute. However, when it came to his 401k mutual fund decisions, he had repeatedly made
same mistake most people were making. As a result, he saw his account drop in value substantially.
At
time we were in
midst of
2000 bear market, which showed no sign of letting up. Jack had purchased into a Lifestyle fund because someone recommended it. By
time he finally bailed out, it cost him dearly. However, he continued to make
same mistake by reinvesting.
He checked with
401k representative and subsequently switched to a variety of mutual funds ranging from World Stock to Domestic Hybrids, Large and Small Value as well as Growth. But nothing worked and his portfolio value headed further south.
By
time we met to discuss his 401k Jack was pretty disgusted by
canned advice he had received and
continued losses he was sustaining.
Jack knew that I had pretty much eluded
bear market of 2000 by having sold all of my clients’ positions on 10/13/2000. We were safely in our money market accounts weathering out
storm (see my article "How we eluded
bear in 2000."
Thinking about this, Jack could only shake his head because at no point in
market slide had he ever been given what I believe was
right advice. That is, no one suggested that, since we were in a bear market, he might want to step aside and remain in
safety of his money market account. So he stayed invested, hoping against
evidence all around him to find something that was not crashing. That was his mistake, and one shared by many.
The advice that he consistently and continually received was that
market was close to a bottom, stocks “have to” move up from these levels, and, my personal money losing favorite, “the market can’t go any lower.” That's what people wanted to hear and believe. But my tracking system said otherwise, and I followed its indicators—much to
delight of my clients.