Is Dot Com Dead? By William Cate Published May 1999 [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]A public company's share price relies on perception, not fundamentals. Investors buy
sizzle and not
steak. It's
reason stock promotion works. Perception can be manipulated.
Investors are lemmings. In
16th Century, they invested in tulips. In
1970's, it was gold mines. Until recently, it's been
Internet. The cliff
lemmings rush over is fundamentals. Most investors don't believe
axiom that a business that isn't making money can't survive.
Tulip Mania, Mining Mania or Dot Com Mania follows
same road to investor loss. There's an event that catches
media's interest. In
case of Mining Mania, it was
collapse of
Bretton Woods Agreement in 1972. France forced
United States to float
gold price against
dollar. This created a platoon of "gold bug" gurus. The profit wasn't in telling
lemmings that
gold price was going up. The gurus made their money telling investors to buy gold mining stocks. The gurus got their stock free for promoting
mining company and sold into
buying they created. Mining stock centers like Vancouver, Denver and Salt Lake City boomed.
It doesn't benefit
U. S. economy, nor any Western Government, to allow gold to appear safer than
U. S. Dollar. After 1980, Western Governments moved to undermine gold [http://www.metropolecafe.com] as an alternative to paper currencies. The declining gold price ended Mining Mania.
The gold bug gurus mining argument was illogical. They argued that investors should not trust
U. S. Dollar because it was a worthless paper (fiat) currency. However, investors should trust worthless paper stock certificates because they represented
potential to produce gold.
Gold mining sank on three realities. The gold price never moved high enough to offset
post World War II inflation. The Environmental Movement imposed massive additional costs on mining, especially in
United States. Most profitable gold deposits had been mined before 1972. Without
prospect of profit,
potential of gold in
ground was worthless. Mining Mania ended with
loss of billions of investor dollars.
The creation of
Internet is one of
major technological events of
20th Century. It's empowered
individual and contributed to
fall of
Soviet Union. In
next Century, computer literacy will determine social class and widen
gulf between between wealthy and developing countries. Keep in mind that expanding world population means increased demand for finite resources. The Net doesn't produce food, shelter or clothing. But, media focus on
Net is justified.
The Net isn't a means of production. It's a means of distribution of goods and services. You can sell books on
Net, without renting a bookstore. I can sell my financial consulting services with this newsletter, without paying for printing and postage. In theory, these savings should translate into greater profits.