Conservative Investors Are Losers By William CateIt isn't your money that counts. It's what that money will buy that matters. To preserve your savings, your money must earn an income that offsets
ravages of inflation. If your interest income is subject to taxation,
interest level must equalize inflation after taxation.
It's 1952. You're a 12-year-old conservative investor planning to retire in 2005. You decide that after you retire, you will want to mail 1,000 postcards over
remainder of your life. You put $10 in a bank savings account, which represents
cost of
1,000 post cards in 1952. The bank pays you 3% annual interest and after you pay State and Federal Tax on
interest, you are earning 1.8% on your postcard retirement investment. In 1992, your postcard fund has grown to $20. In January 2005, your postcard fund will have $27.50 in it for your retirement postcards. Meanwhile
price of 1,000 postcards has risen to $230. The cost of a postcard will rise again before you die.
If you had a middle class income and retired on a fixed income that equaled your salary in 1993, you are finding it nearly impossible to maintain your lifestyle today. The reason is
cost of everything has nearly doubled since 1993. Today, your fixed income buys about half of what it did in 1993. This pattern of certain poverty for
elderly has existed since
Depression.
What's
current inflation rate? If you ask
US Government, they will tell you that it has hovered around 3%/year for
past decade or more. Their statistical data is called
Consumer Price Index (CPI). Unfortunately,
Government uses statistics that intentionally report a percentage that is far below
real inflation rate for
average family. Most economists and business people double
CPI to get a figure closer to economic reality. Economic Conservatives tend to triple
CPI to suggest
annual US inflation rate to be around 9%. I'm with
majority who believe that
inflation rate for years has hovered around 6%/year.
What's inflation? The simply answer is that it's any increase in
money supply. Governments increase
money supply to buy more than they earn from taxation. The increased currency supply depresses
value of
existing dollars and thus allows Governments to borrow money and repay
loan in devalued dollars that offset
interest on
loan. In essence,
Government borrows money and repays it in dollars that buy less than did
originally loaned dollars.