The Wages of Science - Part I

Written by Sam Vaknin


Inrepparttar United States, Congress approved, last month, increases inrepparttar 112617 2003 budgets of bothrepparttar 112618 National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation. America is not alone in - vainly - trying to compensate for imploding capital markets and risk-averse financiers.

In 1999, chancellor Gordon Brown inaugurated a $1.6 billion program of "upgrading British science" and commercializing its products. This was on top of $1 billion invested between 1998-2002. The budgets ofrepparttar 112619 Medical Research Council andrepparttar 112620 Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council were quadrupled overnight.

The University Challenge Fund was set to provide $100 million in seed money to cover costs related torepparttar 112621 hiring of managerial skills, securing intellectual property, constructing a prototype or preparing a business plan. Another $30 million went to start-up funding of high-tech, high-risk companies inrepparttar 112622 UK.

According torepparttar 112623 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),repparttar 112624 top 29 industrialized nations invest in R&D more than $600 billion a year. The bulk of this capital is provided byrepparttar 112625 private sector. Inrepparttar 112626 United Kingdom, for instance, government funds are dwarfed by private financing, according torepparttar 112627 British Venture Capital Association. More than $80 billion have been ploughed into 23,000 companies since 1983, about half of them inrepparttar 112628 hi-tech sector. Three million people are employed in these firms. Investments surged by 36 percent in 2001 to $18 billion.

But this British exuberance is a global exception.

Evenrepparttar 112629 - white hot - life sciences field suffered an 11 percent drop in venture capital investments last year, reportsrepparttar 112630 MoneyTree Survey. According torepparttar 112631 Ernst & Young 2002 Alberta Technology Report released on Wednesday,repparttar 112632 Canadian hi-tech sector is languishing with less than $3 billion invested in 2002 in seed capital - this despite generous matching funds and tax credits proffered by many ofrepparttar 112633 provinces as well asrepparttar 112634 federal government.

In Israel, venture capital plunged to $600 million last year - one fifth its level in 2000. Aware of this cataclysmic reversal in investor sentiment,repparttar 112635 Israeli government set up 24 hi-tech incubators. But these are able merely to partly cater torepparttar 112636 pecuniary needs of less than 20 percent ofrepparttar 112637 projects submitted.

As governments pick uprepparttar 112638 monumental slack created byrepparttar 112639 withdrawal of private funding, they attempt to rationalize and economize.

Bankers in Denial

Written by Sam Vaknin


Denial is a ubiquitous psychological defense mechanism. It involvesrepparttar repression of bad news, unpleasant information, and anxiety-inducing experiences. Judging byrepparttar 112616 German press,repparttar 112617 country is in a state of denial regardingrepparttar 112618 waning health of its economy andrepparttar 112619 dwindling fortunes of its financial system.

Commerzbank, Germany's fourth largest lender, saw its shares decimated by more than 80 percent to a 19-year low, having increased its loan-loss provisions to cover flood-submerged east German debts. Faced with a precipitous drop in net profit, it reacted reflexively by sacking yet more staff. The shares of many other German banks trade below book value.

Dresdner Bank - Germany's third largest private establishment - already trimmed an unprecedented one fifth of its workforce this year alone. Other leading German banks - such as Deutsche Bank and Hypovereinsbank - resorted to panic selling of equity portfolios, real-estate, non-core activities, and securitized assets to patch up their ailing income statements. Deutsche Bank, for instance, unloaded its US leasing and custody businesses.

On September 19, Moody's changed its outlook for Germany's largest banks from "stable" to "negative". In a scathing remark, it said:

"The rating agency stated several times already that current difficult economic conditions that are hurtingrepparttar 112620 banking business in Germany come on top ofrepparttar 112621 legacy of past strategies that were less focused on strengtheningrepparttar 112622 banks' recurring earning power. Indeed,repparttar 112623 German private-sector banks, as a group, remain amongrepparttar 112624 lowest-performing large European banks."

Last week, Fitch Ratings,repparttar 112625 international agency, followed suit and downgradedrepparttar 112626 long-term , short- term, and individual ratings of Dresdner Bank and of Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank (HVB).

These were onlyrepparttar 112627 last in a series of negative outlooks pertaining to German insurers and banks. It is ironic that Fitch citedrepparttar 112628 "bear equity markets (that) have taken their toll not only on trading results but also on sales to private customers,repparttar 112629 fund management business and on corporate finance."

Germans used to be immune torepparttar 112630 stock exchange and its lures until they were caught inrepparttar 112631 frenzied global equities bubble. Moody's observes wryly that "a material and stable retail franchise in its home market, even if more modestly profitable, can and does represent a reliable line of defence against temporary difficulties in financial and wholesale markets."

The technology-laden and scandal-ridden Neuer Markt - Europe's answer to America's NASDAQ - as well asrepparttar 112632 SMAX exchange for small-caps were shut down last week,repparttar 112633 former having lost a staggering 96 percent of its value since March 2000. This compared to Britain's AIM, which lost "only" half its worth. Even Britain's infamous FTSE-TechMARK faded by a "mere" 88 percent.

Only 1 company floated onrepparttar 112634 Neuer Markt this year - compared to more than 130 two years ago. In an unprecedented show of "no-confidence", more than 40 companies withdrew their listings last year. The Duetsche Boerse promised to create two new classes of shares onrepparttar 112635 Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It belatedly vowed to introduce more transparency and openness to foreign investors.

Banks have been accused by irate customers of helping to list inappropriate firms and providing fraudulent advisory services. Court cases are pending againstrepparttar 112636 likes of Commerzbank. These proceedings may dashrepparttar 112637 bank's hopes to move from retail into private banking.

To further compound matters, Germany is inrepparttar 112638 throes of a tsunami of corporate insolvencies. This long-overdue restructuring, though beneficial inrepparttar 112639 long run, couldn't have transpired at a worse time, as far asrepparttar 112640 banks go. Massive provisions and write-downs have voraciously consumed their capital base even as operating profits have plummeted. This double whammy more than erodedrepparttar 112641 benefits of their painful cost-cutting measures.

German banks - not unlike Japanese ones - maintain incestuous relationships with their clients. When it finally collapsed in April, Philip Holzmann AG owed billions to Deutsche Bank with whom it had a cordial working relationship for more than a century. Butrepparttar 112642 bank also owned 19.6 percent ofrepparttar 112643 ailing construction behemoth and chaired its supervisory board -repparttar 112644 relics of previous shambolic rescue packages.

Germany competes with Austria in over-branching, with Japan in souring assets, and with Russia in overhead. According torepparttar 112645 German daily, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,repparttar 112646 cost to income ratio of German banks is 90 percent. Mass bankruptcies and consolidation - voluntary or enforced - are unavoidable, especially inrepparttar 112647 cooperative, mortgage, and savings banks sectors, concludesrepparttar 112648 paper. The process is a decade-old. More than 1500 banks vanished fromrepparttar 112649 German landscape in this period. Another 2500 remain making Germany still one ofrepparttar 112650 most over-banked countries inrepparttar 112651 world.

Moody's don't put much stock inrepparttar 112652 cost-cutting measures ofrepparttar 112653 German banks. Added competition and a "more realistic pricing" of loans and services are far more important to their shriveling bottom line. But "that light is not yet visible atrepparttar 112654 end ofrepparttar 112655 tunnel ... and challenging market conditions are likely to persist forrepparttar 112656 time being."

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